Tuesday Muse; Obama Wins Nomination

June 3, 2008

The End is Near

Today’s Muse will be a frequently updated report of superdelegates and delegates Obama earns as he makes a push towards winning the nomination today. Hillary Clinton is apparently set to concede that she’s lost the delegate battle, but not concede the nomination…which is strange, to say the least, since the delegates decide the nomination.

In pledged delegates, Obama is a mortal lock to get somewhere from 15 to 17 on the day, out of the 31 available. Based on delegate apportionment rules, Obama will get either 7 or 8 delegates in South Dakota, while winning 8 or 9 delegates in Montana. there’s an outside chance he’ll only get 6 delegates in South Dakota, or get 10 delegates in Montana, but both chances are minimal. We’ll say that, for the time being, he’s guaranteed 15 pledged delegates.

Obama has received 6.5 superdelegate votes today, and those, plus the guaranteed pledged delegates, moves him within 17.5 delegates of the nomination. Jim Clyburn has names three superdelegates who plan to announce for Obama either today or tomorrow, and that brings the target down to 14.5. The “Pelosi Club,” those who said they would endorse whoever got the majority of the delegates, will likely all endorse Obama today (except, ironically, Speaker Pelosi, who might wait until Clinton has dropped out). This would move him to within 9.5 superdelegate votes of victory. If he has a good night in montana, he’ll only need seven and a half new supers. The big question will be whether enough superdelegates will endorse him before the primaries in order for him to say that the primary voters put him over the top.

Delegates for Obama today:

Maria Chappelle-Nadal (DNC, MO)

Joyce Lalonde (Michigan, half-vote)

John Olver (Representative, MA)

Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (Representative, Michigan, Half-Vote)

Debbie Dingell (Michigan, Half-vote)

Richard Wiener (Michigan, Half-vote)

Jennifer DeChant (DNC, ME)

Joyce Beatty (DNC, OH)

Kwame Kilpatrick (Gangster, Michigan, Half-vote)

John Spratt (DNC, SC)

Ralph Dawson (DNC, NY)
Deb Kosikowsi (DNC, MA)

An Edwards Florida Delegate

An Edwards South Carolina Delegate

The tally will be updated periodically throughout the day.

11:50 - the AP has announced that there are at least 15 unannounced superdelegates who told the AP they’re voting for Obama, clinching him the nomination. If Spratt and Dawson are on that list (because they haven’t officially declared yet), and the entire Pelosi club is as well, there could, in theory, be only 7 superdelegates on that list unaccounted for here, and thus he could, in theory, not quite have the nomination yet. It does look like it’s just a matter of time though.

11:57 - Terry McAuliffe, Clinton’s campaign chairman and #1 surrogate has said, “I think Hillary will congratulate [Obama] and call him the nominee” once Obama clinches the majority of the delegates.

12:01 - Obama has just been endorsed by Deb Kozikowsi, moving him to within 6.5 to 8.5 delegate votes, depending on tonight’s primary results.

12:16 - Jimmy Carter has just endorsed Obama officially. We already had factored him in, as he’s in the Pelosi club, so he doesn’t change the metrics.

1:30 - According to Demconwatch, Colorado governor Bill Ritter, Colorado Senator Ken Salazar, Representative Jerry McNerney (CA), and the “Montana Three” of Max Baucus, John Tester, and Brian Schweitzer are all going to endorse Obama, as is Montana’s DNC vice-chair, Margaret Campbell. This basically clinches him the nomination, but he won’t announce it until tonight after Montana and South Dakota vote, as he’ll probably give Clinton a chance to concede first.

1:35 - Last superdelegate update for a while, the Mississippi Democratic chair, Carnelia Fondren, and John Perez of the California DNC have both endorsed Obama. It seems like he’ll have no trouble reaching 2118 delegates today

2:47 - A flurry of superdelegates have endorsed, and Obama is now within 12 of the magic number not counting the pledged delegates which will come today and the 15+ who intend to endorse some time tonight. It wouldn’t be a shock if he was a hundred delegates above the magic number by the end of the day, as he has already guaranteed passing it by at least 18.

7:40 - Obama has won Montana, lost South Dakota, and won the nomination. Obama has gotten over 30 superdelegates since clinching the nomination, and now has over 2150 total delegates, far surpassing the 2118 needed for the nomination. This will be the last post of today’s Muse, barring an enormous and newsworthy event.

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