The Weekend Muse; Vice Presidents Revisited Again
May 23, 2008
The Point Where Not a Word Needs to Be Said About Actual Voting Results
Jim Webb? Ruled himself out. Bill Richardson? Ruled out by the media who has realized what a verbal klutz he is, though he is, according to sources, on Obama’s shortlist. Claire McCaskill? Says she isn’t smart enough to be Obama’s running mate. With all this movement among potential VP choices, the Muse is going discuss who the current frontrunners for both sides’ VP nods are and who the best kryptonite to each choice would be.
Potential Vice Presidents For Obama, in Order of Likelihood
1. Hillary Clinton - If she wants to be vice president, which seems increasingly likely, she has the leverage to do so. This could be a potentially “unstoppable” (as Bill would say) ticket because, if Hillary supporters actually went over and supported Obama, the Democratic party’s party ID advantage would do the rest of the work for them.
Best Case Scenario: Clinton helps Obama pick up Ohio, and makes Michigan and Pennsylvania certainties. She makes Florida somewhat within reach. Probably takes all of the south besides Virginia out of reach. Obama wins a comfortable victory with about 300 electoral votes, though the popular vote is not nearly as close.
Worst Case Scenario: Because 30% to half of Clinton supporters just have a problem with the color of Obama’s skin, they don’t vote for him regardless of who the VP is, and Clinton’s high negative ratings (54% of Americans disapprove of her) take Obama’s chances away in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, and North Carolina while forcing him to put more resources into states that he led by wide margins before like Oregon and Washington.
John McCain’s Best Counterpicks: Charlie Crist would probably be a good idea, as he would help secure Florida and McCain wouldn’t have to worry about picking up conservative votes, as Clinton would make the conservatives vote even for a “liberal” Republican ticket like McCain/Crist. The other way to go would be Mike Huckabee, as hearing southern accents tend to bring out everybody’s inner bigot, and there’s a pretty big portion of the country that’s either racist or sexist. Also, Huckabee is something of a political star that, while he wouldn’t match Clinton’s star-power, would be enough of a star to force her to be a vice president, rather than a candidate for co-president.
Biggest Pro: Might unite the Democratic party
Biggest Con: Can unite the Republican party…also, do you know what percentage of this country is either racist or misogynistic? McCain might get close to a majority right there.
2. John Edwards - People all over the media have been discussing what a great ticket he and Obama would make ever since the endorsement, and it’s true. The line of reasoning goes that because of Obama’s success among blacks, he’d only need about 35% of the southern white vote to win 5 states in the south that would almost guarantee the presidency. Also, some people say that Obama needs a down-home white man to counteract the historic nature of the campaign.
Best Case Scenario - There have been several polls with John Edwards as Obama’s VP, done in Nevada, Pennsylvania, California, Ohio, and Virginia. In all cases, Edwards helped Obama by about 5-6 points. If he could do that, nationwide, Obama could potentially win a 350 electoral vote landslide.
Worst Case Scenario - Clinton voters feel like their more-qualified candidate was passed up for another young inexperienced man and stay home. Edwards has as little impact in the south as he did in 2004. People mock the fact that Edwards is running for VP again. Obama finishes with virtually Kerry’s map, plus or minus a couple of states.
John McCain’s Best Counterpicks: Huckabee would be the easy answer here, as he’d probably be able to seal up the vulnerable southern states. Then the election really becomes a battle for Ohio and the rocky mountain states.
Pros: He helps Obama a ton in polls, you can’t beat results with theorizing.
Cons: Another inexperienced pretty boy senator leaves them wide open to the experience line of attack from both McCain and angry Clinton supporters.
3. Ted Strickland - Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Did I mention Ohio?
Best Case Scenario - He helps Obama win Ohio, Obama holds all the other states he’s favored to win in and cruises to an easy victory. The fact that Strickland is a staunch Clinton supporter helps Obama with Clinton voters and he has little trouble in the election.
Worst Case Scenario - He doesn’t win Obama Ohio, and is completely useless elsewhere. Obama wins Kerry states, give or take a couple.
Best Picks for McCain: Huckabee is a perennial possibility, just because of how much he helps McCain’s raw numbers. Another way to go is somebody like Tom Ridge and hope to pick off Pennsylvania, counterbalancing the effectiveness of winning Ohio.
Biggest Pro: Ohio
Biggest Con: Is perhaps more suited to a 2000, 2004 election where there are less swing states. He’d look like he was picked just for electability.
Other possibilities are Rendell, Webb, Richardson, Hagel, Sibelius, Napolitano, Nelson, and Wesley Clark, but I think that the overwhelming likelihood is that one of these three will be Obama’s VP.
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About this Story
- By Mac Zilber
- Posted May 23, 2008
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2:23 AM on May 24th, 2008Ted:
Here’s an important piece of advice: If it looks like it’s going to be McCain/Palin anyway (and that should be a “no brainer” for Team McCain), McCain should announce NOW or VERY SOON, rather than later towards the convention. There’s currently a growing chorus for Obama/Hillary (as VP) ticket (in fact the Dems are likely aware of the Palin phenomenon). If the GOP waits while movement for Hillary as VP grows — even worse until after it is solidified that Hillary will/could be VP pick — selecting Palin will be portrayed by Dems/liberal media more as a reaction by GOP selecting its own female (overshawdoing Palin’s own remarkable assets), rather than McCain taking the lead on this. Selecting Palin now or early (contrary to the punditocracy) will mean McCain will be seen as driving the course of this campaign overwhelmingly, and the DEMS will be seen as merely reacting. And, there’s absoultely no down-side to this because even if Hillary is a no-go as VP for Obama, the GOP gains by acting early. McCain the maverick. Palin the maverick. Do it now!
There’s no reason, and actually substantial negative, in McCain waiting to see what the Dems do first insofar as his picking Palin as VP, because, no matter who Obama picks, Palin is by far (and I mean far) the best pick for McCain and the GOP, especially in this time of GOP woes. The GOP can be seen as the party of real ‘change’ (albeit I hate that mantra, change, change, bla bla), while not really having to change from GOP core conservative values, which Palin more than represents.
In light of the current oil/energy situation, as well as the disaffected female Hillary voters situation, and growing focus on McCain’s age and health, Palin is more than perfect — now.
(Perhaps Team McCain is already on to this.)
8:59 AM on May 27th, 2008The Muse:
It could be, there is definitely a precedent for the VP choice not being on the shortlist (Cheney, Lieberman). There are two big risks involved in this:
1) Republicans could lose a lot of the misogynist vote. This could, however, not matter much if most of the misogynists are also racists.
2) This takes away the “experience” line of attack against Obama, since Obama has more meaningful experience than Palin has.
I personally see Palin as in the same boat as Jindal; a future political superstar whose name is being brought up in the VP talks to raise her stock so that, come 2012 or 2016 if/when she runs for president, she’ll already have been in the public eye for a long time.