The Thursday Muse; An Insurgent Vice Presidency?

May 15, 2008

Does It Matter Who Obama Chooses As VP?

At the end of this electoral process, Barack Obama will likely have about 2200 delegates, while Clinton will have below 1800. This is because superdelegates will likely switch en masse once they are certain who the nominee is. Clinton will not be able to compete in a floor battle for the nomination, even if Michigan and Florida are counted.

Despite this, however, Clinton may be able to win a very different type of floor battle. Many superdelegates, though committed to Obama, will still have pro-Clinton sentiments. The number of delegates at the convention who support Clinton may number as high as 1900. Since a majority of the delegates is 2025, Clinton would need only to convince 125 of Obama’s 2000+ delegates that she was more qualified to be vice president than Obama’s VP choice. If she did that, there would be a situation heretofore unprecedented in major party politics where a nominee’s choice of Vice President wasn’t the Vice President. Clinton might, alternatively, use her delegates to nominate a puppet VP to help lose Obama the election, if that’s her goal.

Most likely, Clinton will use the threat of making herself vice president as leverage to get something out of the party or the Obama campaign, such as payment of her campaign’s debts or a spot as the senate majority leader (though Harry Reid doesn’t think this would happen). This shows that, even if we have a nominee by June 4th, the convention still won’t be boring.

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