Final Filibuster Watch: November 1

November 1, 2008

Mac Zilber

With three days to go until the election, the Democrats have their best chance of getting 58-59 seats that they’ve had all year, but 60 seats could be a bit of a challenge.

All of the seats I’m about to talk about are vulnerable Republican-held seats, as there are no vulnerable seats held by Democrats, and non-vulnerable seats are pretty impertinent.

Safely Democratic:

Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska. The new addition to this list from previous weeks is Alaska, where Republican senator Ted Stevens was convicted of seven felonies and consequently dropped behind in the polls by as many as 22 points. When the Democrats win these five races, it will take them to 56 seats.

Leaning Democratic:

North Carolina, Oregon. In North Carolina, Republican senator Elisabeth Dole’s “Godless” advertisement seems to have backfired on her, as Hagan now leads by 5, 6, and 9 points in the three most recent polls of North Carolina. In Oregon, Merkley is leading by over five points in the RCP average, and Gordon Smith looks nearly finished. If the Democrats win these two races, they will have 58 seats.

Tossup Seats:

Minnesota and Georgia are the only two races in which you can’t be sure what will happen. In Minnesota, the question of who is winning seems to vary based on the pollster. If you only looked at Minnesota Public Radio polls or PPP polls, you would think Franken had the race in the bag. If you only looked at Mason Dixon polls or SUSA polls, you’d think Coleman had a substantial lead. In Georgia, many would say the race is leaning Republican, but I’m not so sure about that. Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss has led by an average of five points in the polls, it’s true, but he has been stuck in the 44-46 percent zone in all of these polls. Undecided voters usually break for the challenger in a senate race, so I think this will be close. Also, Chambliss himself warns that his opponent, Jim Martin, may benefit from increased turnout from “the other people,” AKA blacks. With all that taken into account, I think Chambliss has a 55% chance of winning the race, which is not enough to put his race into the leans-Republucan column. If the Democrats won these races they’d get to 60 seats.

Lean Republican:

Kentucky and Mississippi. These states have enough of a Republican lead that they’re incredibly likely to go to their incumbents, but have enough of a close race that if the Democrats win in a national wave, one of these seats might turn blue. Mississippi is looking less and less plausible for Ronnie Musgrove, as Roger Wicker is winning an astonishing 78% of the white vote in the magnolia state. Musgrove is winning 85% of the black vote, but I’m not sure all the increased turnout in the world would win Musgove Mississippi at this point. As for Kentucky, there are few universities and few African Americans, and, as such, there is no reason to assume that some kind of wave will benefit the Democrats there. If the Democrats win either election, it’s because the Republicans have a demoralized base and low turnout.

My prediction, as of now, is the Democrats pick up 8 seats, and the number will almost assuredly be somewhere from 7-9. They probably won’t win 60 seats total, but they’ll at least win a strong governing majority.

Questions or comments? I answer all emails at themuse [at] albanyhighcougar [dot] com.

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