California Gubernatorial Race – Jerry Brown, Dianne Feinstein, Steve Poizner Early Favorites

March 8, 2008

Mac Zilber

Who is in the lead in the early stages of next year’s Gubernatorial race? That depends who you ask, and how you look at the numbers. We finally have a couple of polls on the race to parse.

On the Democratic side, it’s evident that centrist Senator Dianne Feinstein is the prohibitive favorite if she chooses to run. A field poll from March 6th puts Feinstein’s primary support at 38%, compared to 16% apiece for Governor-turned-Mayor-turned-Attorney-General Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown and L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. SF Mayor Gavin Newson rounds out the field at fourth with 10%.

The general consensus seems to be that if Feinstein runs, she will win the primary, and probably the general election, but it’s not quite as much of a foregone conclusion as it used to be. Last year, she was leading 50-24 over Brown (with the other candidates not topping 10%), and her topline decline should be some cause for concern. As of now, no Democratic candidates have officially announced their intent to run for Governor (though Newsom may as well have), and, if only one of the progressive candidates ultimately runs, this could be much more of a race, as the overall progressive vote now outnumbers Feinstein’s vote 42-38. Furthermore, the name recognition of Feinstein is nearly 100%, Villaraigosa, especially, could make a strong run against Feinstein, as he is not amazingly well-known statewide, is a Latino, and is the only Southern Californian candidate.

The more interesting thing to parse in recent polls is what the primary race looks like without Feinstein in it, as she has not yet expressed strong intentions of running. Without Feinstein in the race, the Field poll shows the primary numbers as Jerry Brown 26%, Antonioni Villaraigosa 22%, and Gavin Newsom 16%, with Lieutenant Governor Garamendi, who is the only announced candidate, at 8%. Meanwhile, the Lake poll show slightly better chances for Jerry Brown than the Field Poll does, who is leading 27%-20%-14%. The marginal candidates; Garamendi, Westly, and O’Connell; combine to garner 14%. 25% of Californians in this poll are unsure who they will be voting for, which tends to favor Newsom and Villaraigosa over Brown, as Brown is the most well-known of the three. 88% of likely voters have heard of Jerry Brown, while 48% of likely voters have never heard of Mayor Newsom and 41% have never heard of Mayor Villaraigosa. Villaraigosa’s strength is underscored by the fact that 34% of people who have heard of him are voting for him, compared to 31% of people who have heard of Brown and 27% of people who have heard of Newsom.

On the Republican side of the aisle, 54% of voters are unsure as to for whom they will vote in the primary. Among those who do have an idea for whom they will vote, former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman leads all candidates with 21%. Professor Tom Campbell, a former congressman, comes in second at 18%, while insurance commissioner Steve Poizner finishes at a disappointing 7%. Campbell, a known commodity, is likely relatively close to his ceiling of support. Given the fact that he lost to Diane Feinstein by 19 points back in 2000, and has not won an election since 1998, it’s unlikely that he’d be viewed as an appealing candidate. Whitman and Poizner, both billionaires, will likely be able to spend Campbell out of the race, but it’s unclear how much their wealth would hurt them politically in this economic climate. Regardless, polling this primary race is relatively meaningless in these stages, as 75% of Californians either haven’t heard of Meg Whitman or have no opinion of her, and 78% saying the same of Steve Poizner.

In general election the Democrats hold a large lead, as expected, but not an insurmountable one. There is only head-to-head data for a couple of races, as of now. Jerry Brown leads Poizner 41-30, meaning that more people are voting for Poizner than have heard of him. Meanwhile, he leads Whitman 43%-27%, indicating that Poizner may be the more electable Republican in this climate. Verifying that sentiment is the fact that Gavin Newsom leads Poizner by only single digits (38-29) while he leads Whitman 40%-25%. One thing that is somewhat notable in these results is that more people support Poizner and Whitman when they’re matched up against brown, a reminder that, while Brown is a popular figure, he is the only candidate on either side of the aisle (besides Senator Feinstein) who has any notable level of unfavorables. Brown may ultimately hit something of a ceiling of support, much like Feinstein, because of the fact that nearly everybody already knows who he is.

It’s likely that the current anti-Republican sentiment in California, layered on top of the fact that California is a very blue state as it is, will make the general election rather meaningless. That being said, the two Democratic frontrunners, Feinstein and Brown, have been around for decades and have yet to get their approval ratings above 50%. Don’t be shocked to see a semi-competitive general election if a billionaire Republican throws a lot of money at it.

Odds of getting elected ranking:
1. Dianne Feinstein – If she runs, she probably wins. But she’s no longer invulnerable. And will she run?
2. Jerry Brown – If Feinstein doesn’t run, he’s the early favorite, but how will he hold up when Villaraigosa or Newsom begin to be better known?
3. Antonio Villaraigosa – The early darkhorse. I have an inkling that he could take on Jerry Brown in a one-on-one race, and he is the only top candidate with a Southern California base.
4. Gavin Newsom – If Villaraigosa doesn’t run, Newsom likely takes his place as the progressive choice who may have a good chance when his name gets out there more. One thing that he has going for him is that he probably has the best TV persona of any politician in California, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him picking up large amounts of the undecided vote.
5. Meg Whitman – If the public sours on Democrats for one reason or another, she’s the one who benefits. Also, one of the side-effects of the economy may be that people will be giving less political contributions, which tends to favor a billionaire like her.
6. Steve Poizner – While he’s more electable than Whitman according to current polls, I have a tough time seeing him wearing well. How is the state insurance commissioner going to beat so many high-profile candidates?
7. John Garamendi – If he wins the nomination, he’s a relatively popular known quantity who wouldn’t have a tough time winning the general election, but he’s a pretty generic individual without much going for him.

One final thing of note is that I am going to begin blogging again regularly, and my work will now be posted at http://progressivepragmatic.blogspot.com/, though I’ll still be here from time to time.

Questions? Comments? Email me at themuse[at]albanyhighcougar[dot]com.

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